FED FUNDS RATE
3.5–3.75%
Effective: 3.64%
⏸ HOLD — 2nd consecutive
CPI (LATEST)
3.3%
Core CPI: 2.6% YoY
▲ Jumped from prior month
CORE PCE (FED TARGET)
2.8%
Fed target: 2.0%
Above target 5+ years
GDP GROWTH (LATEST)
0.7%
Quarterly annualised rate
Economy slowing
UNEMPLOYMENT
4.4%
Latest monthly reading
Job growth near flat
📉 INTEREST RATE × CRYPTO
RATE CUT
Lower borrowing costs expand risk appetite. Capital flows into high-beta assets. BTC historically rallies +20–40% in months following the first cut of a cycle.
RATE HIKE
USD strengthens, risk-free yields rise. Reduces appeal of speculative assets. BTC historically falls −30–60% during aggressive hike cycles.
HOLD NOW
Current rate is restrictive but stable. Watch next FOMC for any change in guidance.
⏰ Next FOMC: Apr 28–29, 2026
Hold probability: ~92%
Powell term ends May 15 — successor uncertainty premium
📊 CPI INFLATION × CRYPTO
CPI RISING
Forces Fed to delay or reverse cuts. Bond yields rise, USD strengthens. Crypto headwind — though BTC is sometimes treated as an inflation hedge (mixed signal).
CPI FALLING
Opens the door for rate cuts. USD weakens, real yields fall. Historically triggers broad risk-asset rallies including crypto.
LIVE DATA
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Data sourced live from Federal Reserve (FRED)
🌐 OTHER MACRO DRIVERS
DXY ▲ STRONG
Strong Dollar Index = crypto headwind. BTC/DXY correlation: −0.75. Dollar strength pulls capital from speculative assets.
US 10Y YIELD
Rising Treasury yields = risk-free returns compete with crypto. Higher yields discount growth assets and reduce valuations.
OIL PRICES
Energy prices cascade into transportation, food, manufacturing costs. Keeps inflation above target when elevated.
NFP MISS
Weak jobs report = Fed forced to cut sooner = bullish crypto. Labour market data watched closely each month.
M2 SUPPLY ▲
Expanding money supply = more liquidity chasing assets. BTC price historically leads M2 growth by 3–6 months — key on-chain metric to watch.
⚠ LOADING SIGNAL...
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💡 Key catalysts: Next FOMC + Next CPI Release
Click ▶ GENERATE BRIEFING to get a live AI analysis of current market conditions, key signals, and what to watch today. Powered by real-time dashboard data.
Capital rotates through asset classes in a predictable sequence during macro cycles. Monitoring which wave is leading vs lagging tells you where smart money is positioning — and where it's heading next.
Commodities lead → Dollar responds → Hard assets follow → Risk-on assets are last to move.
🌾
WAVE 1
COMMODITIES
Inflation hedge · Supply constraint signals
→
💵
WAVE 2
DOLLAR (DXY)
Global liquidity gauge · Rate expectations
→
🏗️
WAVE 3
HARD ASSETS
Real estate · Mining · Energy stocks
→
🚀
WAVE 4
RISK-ON ASSETS
Crypto · Growth stocks · Speculative
POSITIONING GUIDE →
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